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What this means. A wallet put $16.2k on No, at a price that gave it a 46% chance. It lost. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+11.3 pts over 67 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$16.2k
BUY No @ 46¢ · 35,295 shares
Size ≥ $10kProven walletSports
What happened
Wallet omnibus-076daa took No (buy) for $16.2k at an average 46¢. At that price the market implied a 46% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $16.2k+0
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 46¢ means
46%chance the market gave
+117American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 46¢
- Implied odds
- 46.0%
- As American odds
- +117 no vig
- Size
- $16.2k
- Placed
- Jun 27, 15:38 EDT
- Market close
- Jun 27, 17:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- omnibus-076daa
- Tx
- 0xa9db4abf…
This wallet's graded record
39/67+11.3 pts
expected 31.4 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -46 ptsNo price · entry 46¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $82.5k 5.0× usual |
excluded |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $66.6k | excluded |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $25.9k | excluded |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? | LOW BUY Yes @ 98.1¢ | $11.8k | excluded |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? | LOW BUY Yes @ 96¢ | $19.8k | excluded |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? | LOW BUY Yes @ 91.9¢ | $20.9k | excluded |