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What this means. A wallet put $10.4k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 20% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$10.4k
BUY Yes @ 20¢ · 52,499 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Politics
What happened
Wallet 0x202b…7ed7 took Yes (buy) for $10.4k at an average 20¢. At that price the market implied a 20% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $10.4k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 20¢ means
20%chance the market gave
+407American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 20¢
- Implied odds
- 19.7%
- Size
- $10.4k
- Placed
- Sep 18, 15:02 EDT
- Market close
- Sep 20, 19:59 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- 0x202b…7ed7
- Tx
- 0xa8f0e852…
This wallet's graded record
1/3-2.9 pts
expected 1.1 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -20 ptsYes price · entry 20¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $49.9k | excluded |
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | MED BUY No @ 92.9¢ | $42.5k 2.7× usual |
called |
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | LOW BUY No @ 92.9¢ | $27.9k | called |
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | MED BUY Yes @ 20¢ | $13.6k | missed |
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | LOW BUY No @ 83¢ | $51.3k 2.1× usual |
called |
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | LOW BUY No @ 83¢ | $25.0k | called |