0x202b…7ed7

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.1 wins, so it did -2.9 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?−$446Yes · avg 51¢ → 5.5¢ · $54 · 0 proven with, 1 against Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?−$71Yes · avg 8¢ → 2.4¢ · $29 Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?−$74No · avg 94.4¢ → 25¢ · $26 Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?−$81Yes · avg 9.1¢ → 1.8¢ · $19

Price-adjusted edge

-2.9 pts

Called / graded

1/3

Expected from price

1.1

Flagged volume

$147.3k

Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±26.6 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$56.3k

Last 30 days −$43 · $515.4k volume · 45 trades · since Jan 14, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$34.1k

Open P&L · 22 positions

−$90.3k

Closed-position win rate

64%

11 closed

Wallet age · markets

283d

31 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Politics	2	0	0.6	-27.9 pts
Other	1	1	0.5	+47.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 20¢	$10.4k	20%	35d ago	missed
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	MED BUY No @ 36¢	$50.0k	36%	54d ago	missed
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	LOW BUY Yes @ 53¢	$10.9k	53%	146d ago	called
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.6¢	$46.0k	0%	202d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 66¢	$30.0k	66%	204d ago	called

Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?missed

BUY Yes @ 20¢$10.4k

LOW 0x202b…7ed7 · 35d ago

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?missed

BUY No @ 36¢$50.0k

MED 0x202b…7ed7 · 54d ago

Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?called

BUY Yes @ 53¢$10.9k

LOW 0x202b…7ed7 · 146d ago

US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.6¢$46.0k

LOW 0x202b…7ed7 · 202d ago

US forces enter Iran by April 30?called

BUY Yes @ 66¢$30.0k

LOW 0x202b…7ed7 · 204d ago

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