WhaleGrader
Log inSign up
← Wallets

timetowander

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 8 of 11. The prices it paid implied about 6.8 wins, so it did +10.9 pts better than the market expected. That's only 11 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +9.1 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?−$250No · avg 7¢ → 6.5¢ · $3,250 · 0 proven with, 1 against2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House−$3,330Yes · avg 19¢ → 7.5¢ · $2,187Will there be no Hormuz agreement?+$46Yes · avg 89¢ → 92.8¢ · $1,263Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?+$5Yes · avg 5.2¢ → 5.6¢ · $76Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?−$51Yes · avg 5.2¢ → 1.5¢ · $20

Open bets: who else is there

Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.

Not Yes · 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
Same side: 1 proven · 0 losing   Other side: 2 proven · 0 losing
No · Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Same side: 1 proven · 0 losing   Other side: 0 proven · 0 losing
No · 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
Same side: 0 proven · 0 losing   Other side: 2 proven · 0 losing
Not No · Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Same side: 0 proven · 0 losing   Other side: 1 proven · 0 losing
Price-adjusted edge
+10.9 pts
Called / graded
8/11
Expected from price
6.8
Flagged volume
$1.45M
Sample size11 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±12.9 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

+$483
11 graded bets in the order they resolved · 8 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
−$19k$0$18k
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? at 71¢) and the edge is +9.1 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 20% · n=1
20–40¢
0% vs 27% · n=2
60–80¢
100% vs 73% · n=6
80–100¢
100% vs 84% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$389.7k
Last 30 days +$243.1k · $116.10M volume · 70,939 trades · since Apr 24, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$9.22M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$2.07M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
548d
1537 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Politics443.0+25.9 pts
Economy743.8+2.3 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseLOW SELL Yes @ 66¢ $21.6k34% 7h agopending
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseLOW BUY No @ 73¢ $36.5k
2.4× usual
73% 2d agopending
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 79¢ $11.8k79% 2d agopending
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseMED BUY No @ 37¢ $36.5k
2.4× usual
37% 2d agopending
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseLOW BUY No @ 72¢ $14.4k72% 2d agopending
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?LOW SELL No @ 80¢ $11.9k20% 3d agopending
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 81¢ $21.9k81% 3d agopending
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?LOW BUY No @ 83¢ $25.0k83% 35d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 89¢ $21.2k11% 37d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?MED SELL No @ 89¢ $45.2k
2.9× usual
11% 37d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 88¢ $49.4k
3.2× usual
88% 38d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 12¢ $10.0k12% 38d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 92¢ $46.0k
3.0× usual
92% 38d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 90¢ $91.8k
6.0× usual
90% 38d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 88¢ $75.2k
4.9× usual
88% 38d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 88¢ $62.3k
4.0× usual
88% 38d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 88¢ $11.7k12% 39d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 88¢ $35.3k
2.3× usual
88% 39d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 87¢ $30.4k87% 39d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 15¢ $24.0k15% 39d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 83¢ $105.2k
6.8× usual
83% 39d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 80¢ $40.8k
2.7× usual
80% 40d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 80¢ $22.3k80% 40d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 21¢ $13.5k79% 40d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 22¢ $14.0k22% 40d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 81¢ $32.4k
2.1× usual
81% 41d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 80¢ $17.1k80% 42d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 20¢ $10.0k20% 42d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 82¢ $24.6k82% 42d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 81¢ $16.2k81% 42d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 47¢ $34.9k
2.3× usual
47% 44d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 47¢ $14.0k47% 44d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 52¢ $20.9k52% 46d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 50¢ $32.9k
2.1× usual
50% 46d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 59¢ $26.8k59% 50d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 60¢ $24.4k60% 50d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 50¢ $10.0k50% 50d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 50¢ $20.0k50% 50d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 47¢ $11.1k47% 51d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 44¢ $15.4k44% 53d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 57¢ $11.4k57% 53d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 41¢ $10.4k41% 53d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 54¢ $10.8k54% 54d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 47¢ $12.6k47% 55d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 52¢ $10.9k52% 56d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 68¢ $10.2k68% 56d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 67¢ $10.1k67% 59d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 69¢ $19.3k69% 63d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 68¢ $13.2k68% 63d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 72¢ $14.4k72% 66d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 70¢ $14.0k70% 72d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 78¢ $11.0k78% 87d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 74¢ $11.0k74% 88d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 72¢ $12.4k28% 88d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 73¢ $10.6k27% 88d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 73¢ $13.0k73% 88d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 80¢ $13.8k20% 88d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 84¢ $12.6k84% 89d agocalled
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?LOW BUY No @ 71¢ $10.6k71% 196d agocalled
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?LOW BUY No @ 71¢ $19.4k71% 197d agocalled
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?LOW BUY No @ 71¢ $14.2k71% 197d agocalled
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D Housepending
SELL Yes @ 66¢$21.6k
LOW timetowander · 7h ago
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D Housepending
BUY No @ 73¢$36.5k
LOW timetowander · 2d ago
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?pending
BUY No @ 79¢$11.8k
LOW timetowander · 2d ago
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D Housepending
BUY No @ 37¢$36.5k
MED timetowander · 2d ago
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D Housepending
BUY No @ 72¢$14.4k
LOW timetowander · 2d ago
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?pending
SELL No @ 80¢$11.9k
LOW timetowander · 3d ago
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?pending
BUY No @ 81¢$21.9k
LOW timetowander · 3d ago
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?called
BUY No @ 83¢$25.0k
LOW timetowander · 35d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 89¢$21.2k
LOW timetowander · 37d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 89¢$45.2k
MED timetowander · 37d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 88¢$49.4k
LOW timetowander · 38d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 12¢$10.0k
LOW timetowander · 38d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 92¢$46.0k
LOW timetowander · 38d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 90¢$91.8k
MED timetowander · 38d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 88¢$75.2k
MED timetowander · 38d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 88¢$62.3k
LOW timetowander · 38d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?missed
SELL No @ 88¢$11.7k
LOW timetowander · 39d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 88¢$35.3k
LOW timetowander · 39d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 87¢$30.4k
LOW timetowander · 39d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?missed
BUY No @ 15¢$24.0k
MED timetowander · 39d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 83¢$105.2k
MED timetowander · 39d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 80¢$40.8k
MED timetowander · 40d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 80¢$22.3k
LOW timetowander · 40d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?called
SELL No @ 21¢$13.5k
LOW timetowander · 40d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?missed
BUY No @ 22¢$14.0k
LOW timetowander · 40d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 81¢$32.4k
LOW timetowander · 41d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 80¢$17.1k
LOW timetowander · 42d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?missed
BUY No @ 20¢$10.0k
LOW timetowander · 42d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 82¢$24.6k
LOW timetowander · 42d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 81¢$16.2k
LOW timetowander · 42d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?missed
BUY No @ 47¢$34.9k
MED timetowander · 44d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?missed
BUY No @ 47¢$14.0k
LOW timetowander · 44d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 52¢$20.9k
LOW timetowander · 46d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 50¢$32.9k
MED timetowander · 46d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?missed
BUY No @ 59¢$26.8k
MED timetowander · 50d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?missed
BUY No @ 60¢$24.4k
LOW timetowander · 50d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?missed
BUY No @ 50¢$10.0k
LOW timetowander · 50d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 50¢$20.0k
LOW timetowander · 50d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?missed
BUY No @ 47¢$11.1k
LOW timetowander · 51d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?missed
BUY No @ 44¢$15.4k
LOW timetowander · 53d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 57¢$11.4k
LOW timetowander · 53d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?missed
BUY No @ 41¢$10.4k
LOW timetowander · 53d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 54¢$10.8k
LOW timetowander · 54d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 47¢$12.6k
LOW timetowander · 55d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?missed
BUY No @ 52¢$10.9k
LOW timetowander · 56d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?missed
BUY No @ 68¢$10.2k
LOW timetowander · 56d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?missed
BUY No @ 67¢$10.1k
LOW timetowander · 59d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?missed
BUY No @ 69¢$19.3k
LOW timetowander · 63d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?missed
BUY No @ 68¢$13.2k
LOW timetowander · 63d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?missed
BUY No @ 72¢$14.4k
LOW timetowander · 66d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?missed
BUY No @ 70¢$14.0k
LOW timetowander · 72d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 78¢$11.0k
LOW timetowander · 87d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 74¢$11.0k
LOW timetowander · 88d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 72¢$12.4k
LOW timetowander · 88d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 73¢$10.6k
LOW timetowander · 88d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 73¢$13.0k
LOW timetowander · 88d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 80¢$13.8k
LOW timetowander · 88d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 84¢$12.6k
LOW timetowander · 89d ago
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?called
BUY No @ 71¢$10.6k
LOW timetowander · 196d ago
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?called
BUY No @ 71¢$19.4k
LOW timetowander · 197d ago
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?called
BUY No @ 71¢$14.2k
LOW timetowander · 197d ago

Share this record

WhaleGrader badge
<a href="https://whalegrader.com/wallet/0x58b3380f71bd6c706dd398a5e60bde55fa3a653c"><img src="https://whalegrader.com/badge/wallet/0x58b3380f71bd6c706dd398a5e60bde55fa3a653c.svg" alt="WhaleGrader record"></a>

JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x58b338…