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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.4 wins, so it did -20.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-20.8 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
0.4
Flagged volume
$29.7k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±28.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$125.2k
Last 30 days +$0 · $989.7k volume · 115 trades · since Sep 18, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$0
Open P&L · 2 positions
−$125.2k
Closed-position win rate
—
0 closed
Wallet age · markets
36d
2 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 2 | 0 | 0.4 | -20.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | MED BUY No @ 21¢ | $16.1k | missed |
 Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | MED BUY Yes @ 20¢ | $13.6k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x202dfa…