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What this means. A wallet put $73.1k on not No, at a price that gave it a 1% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+8.5 pts over 35 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$73.1k
SELL No @ 99.4¢ · 73,559 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Proven wallet4× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet MisTKy took No (sell) for $73.1k at an average 99.4¢. At that price the market implied a 1% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $73.1k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 99.4¢
- Implied odds
- 0.6%
- Size
- $73.1k
- Placed
- Mar 29, 09:53 EDT
- Market close
- Mar 30, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- MisTKy
- Tx
- 0xa5c9405b…
This wallet's graded record
25/35+8.5 pts
expected 22.0 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -1 ptsNo price · entry 99.4¢ · resolved No · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $99.9k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $14.0k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $12.8k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $17.8k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $60.4k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | MED SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $369.4k 9.9× usual |
excluded |