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What this means. A wallet put $16.3k on not No, at a price that gave it a 5% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$16.3k
SELL No @ 95.1¢ · 17,180 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideSports
What happened
Wallet luck00004 took No (sell) for $16.3k at an average 95.1¢. At that price the market implied a 5% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $16.3k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 95.1¢
- Implied odds
- 4.9%
- As American odds
- +1942 no vig
- Size
- $16.3k
- Placed
- Jul 14, 16:34 EDT
- Market close
- Jul 14, 20:07 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- luck00004
- Tx
- 0x833ea5d2…
This wallet's graded record
3/4+14.8 pts
expected 2.4 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -5 ptsNo price · entry 95.1¢ · resolved No · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $19.4k | excluded |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $37.5k | excluded |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ | $43.5k | excluded |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 97.7¢ | $2.57M 63.2× usual |
excluded |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢ | $30.3k | excluded |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED SELL No @ 97¢ | $26.7k | missed |