luck00004

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 2.4 wins, so it did +14.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?+$11.0kNo · avg 89¢ → 94.8¢ · $189.0k Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?+$9,859No · avg 70¢ → 83¢ · $63.9k Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?+$1,720No · avg 93¢ → 96.5¢ · $47.4k Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in October?+$2,780No · avg 63¢ → 96.4¢ · $8,108 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?+$3,664No · avg 39¢ → 79¢ · $7,236 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?−$3,101No · avg 66¢ → 18¢ · $1,163 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?+$418Yes · avg 55¢ → 94.5¢ · $999 · 1 proven with, 0 against 1win FDV above $45M one day after launch?−$78No · avg 32¢ → 29¢ · $696

Price-adjusted edge

+14.8 pts

Called / graded

3/4

Expected from price

2.4

Flagged volume

$91.8k

Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.7 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$296.0k

Last 30 days −$775 · $4.04M volume · 2,466 trades · since Jun 19, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$256.6k

Open P&L · 43 positions

−$553.5k

Closed-position win rate

90%

50 closed

Wallet age · markets

128d

90 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	4	3	2.4	+14.8 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL No @ 95.1¢	$16.3k	5%	101d ago	missed
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 80¢	$15.9k	80%	104d ago	called
Will France win on 2026-07-09?	LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢	$32.0k 2.0× usual	62%	107d ago	called
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 94.2¢	$13.2k	94%	113d ago	called
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	LOW BUY Yes @ 65¢	$14.3k	65%	123d ago	excluded

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?missed

SELL No @ 95.1¢$16.3k

LOW luck00004 · 101d ago

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?called

BUY No @ 80¢$15.9k

LOW luck00004 · 104d ago

Will France win on 2026-07-09?called

BUY Yes @ 62¢$32.0k

LOW luck00004 · 107d ago

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?called

BUY No @ 94.2¢$13.2k

LOW luck00004 · 113d ago

Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?excluded

BUY Yes @ 65¢$14.3k

LOW luck00004 · 123d ago

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