← Live flags
What this means. A wallet put $11.5k on not No, at a price that gave it a 8% chance. It lost. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+2.3 pts over 28 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$11.5k
SELL No @ 92¢ · 12,451 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Proven walletOther
What happened
Wallet ArmageddonRewardsBilly took No (sell) for $11.5k at an average 92¢. At that price the market implied a 8% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $11.5k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 92¢
- Implied odds
- 8.0%
- Size
- $11.5k
- Placed
- Apr 29, 21:54 EDT
- Market close
- May 31, 23:59 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- ArmageddonRewardsBilly
- Tx
- 0x74cdddbe…
This wallet's graded record
13/28+2.3 pts
expected 12.4 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $76.9k 4.3× usual |
excluded |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $24.3k | excluded |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $46.3k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $18.8k | excluded |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $112.6k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $22.5k | excluded |