← Wallets
−$1,164No · avg 70¢ → 62¢ · $9,247+$1,909No · avg 75¢ → 95.2¢ · $9,206+$444Yes · avg 38¢ → 40¢ · $8,096+$2,407No · avg 65¢ → 93¢ · $8,025−$16Yes · avg 20¢ → 20¢ · $7,995+$3,775No · avg 48¢ → 94¢ · $7,764+$1,946No · avg 30¢ → 41¢ · $7,301+$5,021No · avg 13¢ → 74¢ · $6,084
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 4.0 wins, so it did +0.3 pts better than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -9.2 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+0.3 pts
Called / graded
4/5
Expected from price
4.0
Flagged volume
$563.8k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±16.8 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$3k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect at 62¢) and the edge is -9.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
60–80¢
100% vs 63% · n=2
80–100¢
67% vs 91% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$268.4k
Last 30 days +$47.6k · $21.96M volume · 37,343 trades · since Apr 01, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.14M
Open P&L · 500 positions
+$53.9k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
205d
3397 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 1 | 1.9 | -45.7 pts |
| Economy | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | +19.0 pts |
| Politics | 2 | 2 | 1.3 | +36.9 pts |
History
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