← Wallets
+$11.8kNo · avg 61¢ → 93.5¢ · $34.2k−$20.5kYes · avg 64¢ → 12¢ · $4,526 · 0 proven with, 1 against+$827No · avg 75¢ → 94.5¢ · $4,027+$616No · avg 78¢ → 94.1¢ · $3,716+$908No · avg 57¢ → 96.5¢ · $2,208+$68Yes · avg 75¢ → 78¢ · $1,728−$24Yes · avg 68¢ → 64¢ · $477−$190Yes · avg 77¢ → 49¢ · $330
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?missed
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 6 of 9. The prices it paid implied about 8.2 wins, so it did -24.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 9 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-24.4 pts
Called / graded
6/9
Expected from price
8.2
Flagged volume
$821.7k
Sample size9 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±9.3 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$39k9 graded bets in the order they resolved · 6 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? at 82¢) and the edge is -29.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
80–100¢
67% vs 91% · n=9
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$22.3k
Last 30 days −$3,301 · $5.39M volume · 596 trades · since Dec 31, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$49.0k
Open P&L · 15 positions
−$47.9k
Closed-position win rate
88%
200 closed
Wallet age · markets
662d
222 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 6 | 3 | 5.5 | -40.8 pts |
| Sports | 3 | 3 | 2.7 | +8.5 pts |
History
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?calledBUY Yes @ 82¢$50.0k
LOW cezarn132 · 132d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?missedBUY No @ 96.9¢$26.8k
LOW cezarn132 · 134d ago
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