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What this means. A wallet put $13.8k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 33% chance. It lost. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+7.5 pts over 23 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$13.8k
BUY Yes @ 33¢ · 42,167 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Proven walletSports
What happened
Wallet nigiri99 took Yes (buy) for $13.8k at an average 33¢. At that price the market implied a 33% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $13.8k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 33¢ means
33%chance the market gave
+205American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 33¢
- Implied odds
- 32.8%
- As American odds
- +205 no vig
- Size
- $13.8k
- Placed
- Jul 07, 19:24 EDT
- Market close
- Jul 14, 20:07 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- nigiri99
- Tx
- 0x700b8cfa…
This wallet's graded record
16/23+7.5 pts
expected 14.3 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -33 ptsYes price · entry 33¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $19.4k | excluded |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $37.5k | excluded |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ | $43.5k | excluded |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 97.7¢ | $2.57M 61.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢ | $30.3k | excluded |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED SELL No @ 97¢ | $26.7k | missed |