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What this means. A wallet put $20.1k on not No, at a price that gave it a 19% chance. It lost. This wallet has a proven record: +12.8 pts vs the price over 34 bets. A bet from a wallet like this is worth a look; one from a random whale usually isn't. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$20.1k
SELL No @ 81¢ · 25,000 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Proven walletSports
What happened
Wallet GoriIIa took No (sell) for $20.1k at an average 81¢. At that price the market implied a 19% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $20.1k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 81¢
- Implied odds
- 19.4%
- As American odds
- +415 no vig
- Size
- $20.1k
- Placed
- Jul 15, 16:06 EDT
- Market close
- Jul 19, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- GoriIIa
- Tx
- 0x6d4c3260…
This wallet's graded record
32/34+12.8 pts
expected 27.7 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -19 ptsNo price · entry 81¢ · resolved No · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $89.9k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $53.9k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 77¢ | $104.3k 4.7× usual |
called |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 97.1¢ | $14.8k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 82¢ | $35.0k 2.1× usual |
called |