← Live flags
What this means. A wallet put $83.5k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 1% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$83.5k
SELL Yes @ 99.3¢ · 84,065 shares in 4 fills
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog side4 fills in 1hLate (<1h before start)2× this wallet's usual betPolitics
What happened
Wallet Pestle took Yes (sell) for $83.5k at an average 99.3¢. At that price the market implied a 1% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $83.5k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
4 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 99.3¢
- Implied odds
- 0.7%
- Size
- $83.5k
- Placed
- Feb 06, 09:58 EST
- Market close
- Jan 25, 09:00 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- Pestle
- Tx
- 0x215cd4dd…
This wallet's graded record
1/2-3.0 pts
expected 1.1 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $17.8k | excluded |
| Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $18.5k | excluded |
| Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $25.0k | excluded |
| Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
| Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $28.7k | excluded |
| Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ | $46.6k | excluded |