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What this means. A wallet put $285.0k on No, at a price that gave it a 95% chance. It won. This wallet has a proven record: +13.4 pts vs the price over 36 bets. A bet from a wallet like this is worth a look; one from a random whale usually isn't. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$285.0k
BUY No @ 95¢ · 300,000 shares
Size ≥ $250kHeavy favoriteEarly (>24h before close)Proven wallet7.6× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet Erasmus. took No (buy) for $285.0k at an average 95¢. At that price the market implied a 95% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
HIGHSize $285.0k+3
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 95¢ means
95%chance the market gave
−1900American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 95¢
- Implied odds
- 95.0%
- Size
- $285.0k
- Placed
- Mar 31, 18:06 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 29, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- Erasmus.
- Tx
- 0xfb647ae4…
This wallet's graded record
29/36+13.4 pts
expected 24.2 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $71.7k 3.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $13.0k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $20.4k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |