pantomime

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House+$175No · avg 92¢ → 92.5¢ · $32.4k Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?+$288No · avg 96.3¢ → 97.5¢ · $24.4k Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?+$0No · avg 63¢ → 63¢ · $10.1k Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?+$240No · avg 35¢ → 36¢ · $5,840 Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?+$1,815No · avg 37¢ → 68¢ · $4,016 Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?+$138No · avg 71¢ → 78¢ · $1,647 Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?+$166No · avg 18¢ → 20¢ · $1,554 Will Mark Warner vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?+$194No · avg 79¢ → 94.7¢ · $1,142

Price-adjusted edge

—

Called / graded

0/0

Expected from price

0.0

Flagged volume

$160.0k

Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$224.6k

Last 30 days +$38.7k · $24.55M volume · 31,083 trades · since Oct 01, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$1.05M

Open P&L · 39 positions

−$8,847

Closed-position win rate

100%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

752d

2771 markets traded

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$46.1k 2.3× usual	100%	128d ago	excluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$36.2k	100%	167d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢	$13.0k	0%	176d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢	$12.5k	0%	235d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	LOW BUY Yes @ 95.7¢	$11.3k	96%	237d ago	excluded
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$20.9k	100%	334d ago	excluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$20.0k	100%	353d ago	excluded

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$46.1k

LOW pantomime · 128d ago

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$36.2k

LOW pantomime · 167d ago

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?excluded

SELL No @ 99.9¢$13.0k

LOW pantomime · 176d ago

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.8¢$12.5k

LOW pantomime · 235d ago

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?excluded

BUY Yes @ 95.7¢$11.3k

LOW pantomime · 237d ago

Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$20.9k

LOW pantomime · 334d ago

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$20.0k

LOW pantomime · 353d ago

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