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Polymarket · Politics · one bet
OpenResolves Nov 3
$462.6k
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
ndb1 sold No at 92¢. Their side is the other outcome, which the price gave a 8% chance. 502,866 shares, 2 fills, Oct 28, 15:18 EDT.
Plain exchange link. No referral code.
What this means. A wallet put $462.6k on not No, at a price that gave it a 8% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has no graded bets yet. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
[01] Bet
What happened
Wallet ndb1 sold No for $462.6k at an average 92¢. At that price the market implied 8% for the side they took. Open: the market hasn't settled yet. Once it does, we grade this flag called (the whale's side won) or missed (it lost). More It still counts toward the score.
[02] Flag
Why it was flagged
High. Labels do not change the grade. Methodology
Size $462.6k+3
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
2 fills within 1h+1
Size ≥ $250kUnderdog side2 fills in 1hEarly (>24h before close)7× this wallet's usual betPolitics
[04] Price
Price since the bet
Price since this bet
Since entry -0.5 ptsNo price · entry 92¢ · now 92.5¢ · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | MED BUY No @ 93¢ | $505.7k 7.6× usual |
Open |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | LOW SELL No @ 93¢ | $10.4k | Open |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | MED SELL No @ 92¢ | $92.9k | OpenResolves Nov 3 |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | LOW SELL No @ 92¢ | $18.4k | OpenResolves Nov 3 |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | MED SELL No @ 92¢ | $136.3k 2.5× usual |
OpenResolves Nov 3 |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | MED SELL No @ 93¢ | $45.1k | OpenResolves Nov 3 |