← Live flags
What this means. A wallet put $41.2k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 99% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+2.3 pts over 28 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$41.2k
BUY Yes @ 98.8¢ · 41,672 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favorite2 fills in 1hEarly (>24h before close)Proven walletOther
What happened
Wallet ArmageddonRewardsBilly took Yes (buy) for $41.2k at an average 98.8¢. At that price the market implied a 99% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $41.2k+1
Near-certain price-2
2 fills within 1h+1
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 99¢ means
99%chance the market gave
−8506American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 98.8¢
- Implied odds
- 98.8%
- Size
- $41.2k
- Placed
- Apr 04, 23:53 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 08, 20:28 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- ArmageddonRewardsBilly
- Tx
- 0xde6869dd…
This wallet's graded record
13/28+2.3 pts
expected 12.4 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +1 ptsYes price · entry 98.8¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $12.5k | excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $39.0k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $870.2k 35.3× usual |
excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $249.8k 7.8× usual |
excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $1.13M 5.2× usual |
excluded |