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Polymarket · Politics · one bet
OpenResolves Nov 3
$128.5k
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
UnderperformingForALivin sold No at 94¢. Their side is the other outcome, which the price gave a 6% chance. 136,681 shares, Oct 29, 10:14 EDT.
Plain exchange link. No referral code.
What this means. A wallet put $128.5k on not No, at a price that gave it a 6% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
[01] Bet
What happened
Wallet UnderperformingForALivin sold No for $128.5k at an average 94¢. At that price the market implied 6% for the side they took. Open: the market hasn't settled yet. Once it does, we grade this flag called (the whale's side won) or missed (it lost). More It still counts toward the score.
This wallet is 0 of 1 on graded bets, -5.0 pts versus the price. The sample is still short. Big is not the same as right.
[02] Flag
Why it was flagged
Med. Labels do not change the grade. Methodology
Size $128.5k+2
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Size ≥ $100kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)6.6× this wallet's usual betPolitics
[04] Price
Price since the bet
Price since this bet
Since entry +0.5 ptsNo price · entry 94¢ · now 93.5¢ · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | LOW BUY Yes @ 7¢ | $10.0k | OpenResolves Nov 3 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | LOW SELL No @ 93¢ | $13.3k | OpenResolves Nov 3 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | LOW SELL No @ 93¢ | $14.5k | OpenResolves Nov 3 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | MED SELL No @ 93¢ | $32.5k | OpenResolves Nov 3 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | LOW SELL No @ 93¢ | $11.5k | OpenResolves Nov 3 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | MED BUY No @ 94¢ | $12.1k | OpenResolves Nov 3 |