← Wallets
+$1,437No · avg 67¢ → 72¢ · $19.4k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$128No · avg 91.7¢ → 92.5¢ · $14.7k+$115No · avg 96.3¢ → 97.5¢ · $9,745+$177Yes · avg 65¢ → 66¢ · $9,581 · 2 proven with, 0 against+$69No · avg 90.8¢ → 91.5¢ · $8,716−$353Yes · avg 80¢ → 76¢ · $8,687+$229No · avg 62¢ → 64¢ · $8,471+$143Yes · avg 62¢ → 64¢ · $7,748 · 0 proven with, 1 against
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.1 wins, so it did -6.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-6.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.1
Flagged volume
$237.5k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±23.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$283.2k
Last 30 days +$11.1k · $33.09M volume · 120,116 trades · since Dec 27, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$522.4k
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$107.8k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
666d
3582 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | -6.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | LOW SELL No @ 94¢ | $10.2k | missed |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $14.0k | excluded |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $51.9k 4.3× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $47.1k 3.9× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | MED SELL Yes @ 60¢ | $38.1k 3.2× usual |
missed |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW SELL No @ 97.9¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW BUY No @ 97.4¢ | $10.8k | excluded |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
 Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $19.3k | excluded |
 Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
| Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
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