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What this means. A wallet put $187.7k on No, at a price that gave it a 94% chance. It won. This wallet has a proven record: +13.4 pts vs the price over 36 bets. A bet from a wallet like this is worth a look; one from a random whale usually isn't. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$187.7k
BUY No @ 93.8¢ · 200,000 shares
Size ≥ $100kHeavy favoriteEarly (>24h before close)Proven wallet5× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet Erasmus. took No (buy) for $187.7k at an average 93.8¢. At that price the market implied a 94% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $187.7k+2
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 94¢ means
94%chance the market gave
−1525American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 93.8¢
- Implied odds
- 93.8%
- Size
- $187.7k
- Placed
- Mar 09, 16:13 EDT
- Market close
- Mar 30, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- Erasmus.
- Tx
- 0xc5e2c550…
This wallet's graded record
29/36+13.4 pts
expected 24.2 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $99.9k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $14.0k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $12.8k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $17.8k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $60.4k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | MED SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $369.4k 9.9× usual |
excluded |