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What this means. A wallet put $40.2k on not No, at a price that gave it a 4% chance. It lost. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+8.5 pts over 35 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$40.2k
SELL No @ 96.5¢ · 41,615 shares in 3 fills
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog side3 fills in 1hEarly (>24h before close)Proven wallet2.2× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet MisTKy took No (sell) for $40.2k at an average 96.5¢. At that price the market implied a 4% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
HIGHSize $40.2k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
3 fills within 1h+1
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 96.5¢
- Implied odds
- 3.5%
- Size
- $40.2k
- Placed
- Apr 24, 07:22 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 29, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- MisTKy
- Tx
- 0xc0ab1231…
This wallet's graded record
25/35+8.5 pts
expected 22.0 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -4 ptsNo price · entry 96.5¢ · resolved No · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $23.6k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $24.0k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $42.7k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $16.6k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $86.0k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $11.1k | excluded |