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+$2Yes · avg 66¢ → 66¢ · $206 · 2 proven with, 0 against
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.6 wins, so it did +36.1 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+36.1 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.6
Flagged volume
$205.9k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±48.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$29.1k
Last 30 days +$98 · $1.69M volume · 2,343 trades · since Jan 11, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$29.1k
Open P&L · 1 positions
+$2
Closed-position win rate
50%
168 closed
Wallet age · markets
286d
120 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | +36.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 36¢ | $19.9k | called |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $16.6k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
 US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ | $55.0k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $40.0k | excluded |
 US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ | $39.9k | excluded |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW SELL Yes @ 94.1¢ | $23.5k | excluded |
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