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+$750No · avg 93¢ → 94.5¢ · $47.2k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$600No · avg 90¢ → 91.5¢ · $36.6k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$495No · avg 96.1¢ → 97.8¢ · $29.3k+$3,146No · avg 85¢ → 97.5¢ · $24.6k+$2,974No · avg 80¢ → 96.9¢ · $17.6k+$2,167No · avg 82¢ → 95.5¢ · $15.3k+$625No · avg 91.4¢ → 97.7¢ · $9,765+$485No · avg 90¢ → 94.8¢ · $9,475
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 2.5 wins, so it did -9.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-9.1 pts
Called / graded
2/6
Expected from price
2.5
Flagged volume
$260.5k
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±13.9 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$69k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 2 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? at 72¢) and the edge is -16.5 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 7% · n=3
60–80¢
100% vs 75% · n=2
80–100¢
0% vs 84% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$17.0k
Last 30 days +$2,782 · $5.64M volume · 7,071 trades · since Jan 05, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$46.4k
Open P&L · 33 positions
+$14.0k
Closed-position win rate
71%
163 closed
Wallet age · markets
293d
194 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 6 | 2 | 2.5 | -9.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 84¢ | $16.4k | missed |
 MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.2¢ | $24.4k | excluded |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $42.7k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 78¢ | $20.8k | called |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW SELL No @ 97.7¢ | $19.5k | excluded |
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢ | $28.6k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW SELL No @ 91¢ | $21.7k | missed |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW BUY No @ 87¢ | $13.1k | called |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 95.4¢ | $13.1k | missed |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 89¢ | $16.0k | missed |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | MED SELL No @ 95¢ | $33.2k | missed |
 Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 72¢ | $11.0k | called |
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