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What this means. A wallet put $20.6k on No, at a price that gave it a 95% chance. It won. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+2.3 pts over 28 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$20.6k
BUY No @ 95¢ · 21,633 shares
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favoriteEarly (>24h before close)Proven walletOther
What happened
Wallet ArmageddonRewardsBilly took No (buy) for $20.6k at an average 95¢. At that price the market implied a 95% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $20.6k+0
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 95¢ means
95%chance the market gave
−1900American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 95¢
- Implied odds
- 95.0%
- Size
- $20.6k
- Placed
- May 03, 16:21 EDT
- Market close
- May 14, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- ArmageddonRewardsBilly
- Tx
- 0xbf4093ae…
This wallet's graded record
13/28+2.3 pts
expected 12.4 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +5 ptsNo price · entry 95¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $13.0k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $47.2k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $26.4k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $17.8k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $37.8k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $60.9k | excluded |