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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did +4.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+4.5 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$120.8k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±20.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$8,184
Last 30 days −$2,229 · $371.2k volume · 246 trades · since Jan 30, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$12.9k
Open P&L · 13 positions
−$4,690
Closed-position win rate
82%
167 closed
Wallet age · markets
267d
180 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +4.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ | $23.5k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ | $23.4k | excluded |
 US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | LOW BUY No @ 95.5¢ | $22.1k | called |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $17.8k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ | $17.6k | excluded |
 Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | LOW BUY No @ 97.4¢ | $16.5k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xd16549…