WhaleGrader
Log inSign up
← Wallets

Dafu0715

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.1 wins, so it did -4.2 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?−$162No · avg 95.8¢ → 95¢ · $20.6kWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?−$290No · avg 95.9¢ → 94.5¢ · $18.9k · 1 proven with, 0 against
Price-adjusted edge
-4.2 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
0.1
Flagged volume
$4.79M
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$114.0k
Last 30 days +$1,536 · $20.07M volume · 13,440 trades · since Mar 24, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$114.6k
Open P&L · 5 positions
+$275
Closed-position win rate
71%
284 closed
Wallet age · markets
214d
316 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Sports200.1-4.2 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $43.9k99% 39d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $50.0k100% 41d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $50.0k100% 42d agoexcluded
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?LOW SELL No @ 97.4¢ $36.0k3% 92d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?LOW SELL No @ 98.8¢ $27.4k1% 93d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?LOW SELL No @ 99¢ $18.2k1% 93d agoexcluded
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?MED SELL No @ 96.7¢ $48.4k3% 110d agomissed
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW SELL No @ 97¢ $49.0k3% 110d agoexcluded
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?MED SELL No @ 95.7¢ $48.3k4% 110d agomissed
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?MED SELL No @ 94.8¢ $47.4k5% 110d agomissed
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?MED SELL No @ 97¢ $67.9k3% 110d agoexcluded
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY No @ 96.8¢ $19.4k97% 113d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $49.9k100% 113d agoexcluded
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY No @ 97.4¢ $19.5k97% 126d agoexcluded
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY No @ 97.6¢ $19.5k98% 127d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?MED SELL Yes @ 82¢ $33.9k18% 131d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?MED BUY Yes @ 79¢ $39.3k79% 131d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?MED BUY Yes @ 94¢ $65.4k94% 131d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢ $23.3k100% 132d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?MED SELL No @ 81¢ $47.2k19% 133d agocalled
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW BUY Yes @ 95¢ $57.0k95% 137d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW SELL No @ 98.2¢ $50.1k2% 137d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 99¢ $59.4k1% 137d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $59.6k99% 139d agoexcluded
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW SELL No @ 99.2¢ $12.7k1% 140d agoexcluded
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ $11.7k1% 140d agoexcluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?MED SELL No @ 99.7¢ $781.1k
19.1× usual
0% 142d agoexcluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ $99.5k
2.4× usual
1% 142d agoexcluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $49.9k0% 143d agoexcluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ $43.0k99% 143d agoexcluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ $12.5k99% 143d agoexcluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?MED BUY No @ 99.4¢ $847.7k
20.7× usual
99% 143d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 98.3¢ $17.9k2% 144d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $59.9k100% 144d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $34.8k100% 145d agoexcluded
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $18.7k0% 145d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $189.4k
4.6× usual
0% 146d agoexcluded
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 97.6¢ $10.6k98% 148d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ $99.3k
2.4× usual
1% 149d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?LOW BUY No @ 96.9¢ $11.8k97% 152d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?HIGH SELL No @ 88¢ $370.6k
9.0× usual
12% 152d agomissed
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 89¢ $29.3k89% 153d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?MED SELL No @ 88¢ $86.1k
2.1× usual
12% 153d agomissed
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?MED BUY No @ 88¢ $80.5k88% 153d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?MED BUY No @ 75¢ $67.4k75% 153d agocalled
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?MED BUY No @ 95.7¢ $53.4k96% 153d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 97.7¢ $44.7k2% 154d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?LOW BUY No @ 92.5¢ $14.2k93% 154d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ $38.6k1% 155d agoexcluded
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98¢ $10.3k98% 155d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?MED BUY No @ 95.8¢ $41.0k96% 155d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.2¢ $93.7k
2.3× usual
1% 156d agoexcluded
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW SELL No @ 98.6¢ $15.6k1% 156d agoexcluded
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW SELL No @ 98.9¢ $10.5k1% 156d agoexcluded
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ $10.2k1% 158d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $60.9k0% 159d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?LOW BUY No @ 99¢ $49.5k99% 161d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $34.4k100% 162d agoexcluded
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 99¢ $40.7k99% 164d agoexcluded
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ $29.7k98% 164d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $29.9k100% 164d agoexcluded
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 98.3¢ $10.9k98% 166d agoexcluded
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 97.9¢ $21.2k98% 172d agoexcluded
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $59.9k100% 174d agoexcluded
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢ $59.8k0% 174d agoexcluded
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $10.7k0% 206d agoexcluded
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $22.2k0% 206d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $31.0k0% 206d agoexcluded
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $31.0k0% 209d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.3¢$43.9k
LOW Dafu0715 · 39d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$50.0k
LOW Dafu0715 · 41d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$50.0k
LOW Dafu0715 · 42d ago
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?excluded
SELL No @ 97.4¢$36.0k
LOW Dafu0715 · 92d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?excluded
SELL No @ 98.8¢$27.4k
LOW Dafu0715 · 93d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99¢$18.2k
LOW Dafu0715 · 93d ago
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?missed
SELL No @ 96.7¢$48.4k
MED Dafu0715 · 110d ago
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded
SELL No @ 97¢$49.0k
LOW Dafu0715 · 110d ago
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?missed
SELL No @ 95.7¢$48.3k
MED Dafu0715 · 110d ago
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?missed
SELL No @ 94.8¢$47.4k
MED Dafu0715 · 110d ago
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded
SELL No @ 97¢$67.9k
MED Dafu0715 · 110d ago
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?called
BUY No @ 96.8¢$19.4k
LOW Dafu0715 · 113d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$49.9k
LOW Dafu0715 · 113d ago
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded
BUY No @ 97.4¢$19.5k
LOW Dafu0715 · 126d ago
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded
BUY No @ 97.6¢$19.5k
LOW Dafu0715 · 127d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?excluded
SELL Yes @ 82¢$33.9k
MED Dafu0715 · 131d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?excluded
BUY Yes @ 79¢$39.3k
MED Dafu0715 · 131d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?excluded
BUY Yes @ 94¢$65.4k
MED Dafu0715 · 131d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.5¢$23.3k
LOW Dafu0715 · 132d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?called
SELL No @ 81¢$47.2k
MED Dafu0715 · 133d ago
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?excluded
BUY Yes @ 95¢$57.0k
LOW Dafu0715 · 137d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?excluded
SELL No @ 98.2¢$50.1k
LOW Dafu0715 · 137d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99¢$59.4k
LOW Dafu0715 · 137d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.3¢$59.6k
LOW Dafu0715 · 139d ago
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?excluded
SELL No @ 99.2¢$12.7k
LOW Dafu0715 · 140d ago
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?excluded
SELL No @ 99.5¢$11.7k
LOW Dafu0715 · 140d ago
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$781.1k
MED Dafu0715 · 142d ago
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.5¢$99.5k
LOW Dafu0715 · 142d ago
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$49.9k
LOW Dafu0715 · 143d ago
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.2¢$43.0k
LOW Dafu0715 · 143d ago
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.2¢$12.5k
LOW Dafu0715 · 143d ago
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.4¢$847.7k
MED Dafu0715 · 143d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 98.3¢$17.9k
LOW Dafu0715 · 144d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$59.9k
LOW Dafu0715 · 144d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$34.8k
LOW Dafu0715 · 145d ago
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$18.7k
LOW Dafu0715 · 145d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$189.4k
LOW Dafu0715 · 146d ago
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 97.6¢$10.6k
LOW Dafu0715 · 148d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?excluded
SELL No @ 99.3¢$99.3k
LOW Dafu0715 · 149d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?called
BUY No @ 96.9¢$11.8k
LOW Dafu0715 · 152d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?missed
SELL No @ 88¢$370.6k
HIGH Dafu0715 · 152d ago
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?called
BUY No @ 89¢$29.3k
LOW Dafu0715 · 153d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?missed
SELL No @ 88¢$86.1k
MED Dafu0715 · 153d ago
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?called
BUY No @ 88¢$80.5k
MED Dafu0715 · 153d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?called
BUY No @ 75¢$67.4k
MED Dafu0715 · 153d ago
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?called
BUY No @ 95.7¢$53.4k
MED Dafu0715 · 153d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 97.7¢$44.7k
LOW Dafu0715 · 154d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?called
BUY No @ 92.5¢$14.2k
LOW Dafu0715 · 154d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.4¢$38.6k
LOW Dafu0715 · 155d ago
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98¢$10.3k
LOW Dafu0715 · 155d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?called
BUY No @ 95.8¢$41.0k
MED Dafu0715 · 155d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.2¢$93.7k
LOW Dafu0715 · 156d ago
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?excluded
SELL No @ 98.6¢$15.6k
LOW Dafu0715 · 156d ago
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?excluded
SELL No @ 98.9¢$10.5k
LOW Dafu0715 · 156d ago
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?excluded
SELL No @ 99.4¢$10.2k
LOW Dafu0715 · 158d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$60.9k
LOW Dafu0715 · 159d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?excluded
BUY No @ 99¢$49.5k
LOW Dafu0715 · 161d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$34.4k
LOW Dafu0715 · 162d ago
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?excluded
BUY No @ 99¢$40.7k
LOW Dafu0715 · 164d ago
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?excluded
BUY No @ 98.5¢$29.7k
LOW Dafu0715 · 164d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$29.9k
LOW Dafu0715 · 164d ago
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?excluded
BUY No @ 98.3¢$10.9k
LOW Dafu0715 · 166d ago
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?excluded
BUY No @ 97.9¢$21.2k
LOW Dafu0715 · 172d ago
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$59.9k
LOW Dafu0715 · 174d ago
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.7¢$59.8k
LOW Dafu0715 · 174d ago
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$10.7k
LOW Dafu0715 · 206d ago
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$22.2k
LOW Dafu0715 · 206d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$31.0k
LOW Dafu0715 · 206d ago
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$31.0k
LOW Dafu0715 · 209d ago

Share this record

WhaleGrader badge
<a href="https://whalegrader.com/wallet/0x93511d72d294f1478739bc38f578bf0306fd9e4d"><img src="https://whalegrader.com/badge/wallet/0x93511d72d294f1478739bc38f578bf0306fd9e4d.svg" alt="WhaleGrader record"></a>

JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x93511d…