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What this means. A wallet put $280.7k on No, at a price that gave it a 100% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$280.7k
BUY No @ 99.5¢ · 282,155 shares
Size ≥ $250kHeavy favorite5.5× this wallet's usual betEconomy
What happened
Wallet elmcap2 took No (buy) for $280.7k at an average 99.5¢. At that price the market implied a 100% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $280.7k+3
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 100¢ means
100%chance the market gave
—American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 99.5¢
- Implied odds
- 99.5%
- Size
- $280.7k
- Placed
- Jul 28, 11:51 EDT
- Market close
- Jul 28, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- elmcap2
- Tx
- 0xa40bbeea…
This wallet's graded record
3/3+3.7 pts
expected 2.9 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +1 ptsNo price · entry 99.5¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $50.2k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ | $26.0k | excluded |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ | $15.3k | excluded |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ | $20.9k | excluded |