← Wallets
+$1,035No · avg 70¢ → 72¢ · $37.4k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$356No · avg 63¢ → 64¢ · $36.1k+$317No · avg 69¢ → 70¢ · $34.7k+$1,461Mbappé · avg 71¢ → 78¢ · $15.6k−$521Yes · avg 74¢ → 69¢ · $6,865−$275Yes · avg 15¢ → 14¢ · $2,700+$50Yes · avg 17¢ → 18¢ · $1,750+$80Yes · avg 14¢ → 14¢ · $1,261
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 3.8 wins, so it did +3.4 pts better than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -0.1 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+3.4 pts
Called / graded
4/6
Expected from price
3.8
Flagged volume
$344.2k
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.6 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$12k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? at 79¢) and the edge is -0.1 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 4% · n=1
40–60¢
0% vs 48% · n=1
60–80¢
100% vs 79% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 83% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$323.8k
Last 30 days +$74.5k · $60.52M volume · 133,521 trades · since Jan 27, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.68M
Open P&L · 59 positions
−$16.8k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
635d
4855 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 4 | 3.8 | +4.8 pts |
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | -3.7 pts |
History
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