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What this means. A wallet put $28.1k on not No, at a price that gave it a 1% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+2.3 pts over 28 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?excluded
$28.1k
SELL No @ 99.1¢ · 28,354 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Proven walletOther

What happened

Wallet ArmageddonRewardsBilly took No (sell) for $28.1k at an average 99.1¢. At that price the market implied a 1% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded.

Why this was flagged

LOW
Size $28.1k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
Entry price
99.1¢
Implied odds
0.9%
Size
$28.1k
Placed
Mar 21, 20:01 EDT
Market close
Mar 30, 20:00 EDT
Result
No
Counts toward score
yes
Wallet
ArmageddonRewardsBilly
Tx
0x91d84de8…
This wallet's graded record
13/28+2.3 pts
expected 12.4 from price
Share this receipt

Entry to resolution

Grade -1 pts
No price · entry 99.1¢ · resolved No · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢ Whale entry 99.1¢ · $28.1k WHALE $28.1K @ 99.1¢ MISSED
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.

Other flags on this market

Market page →
MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWalletWhenResultOpen on Polymarket
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $15.0k0% 0xb03b…6ca1207d agoexcluded
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $58.0k0% tifakers207d agoexcluded
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $38.7k0% blgggggg208d agoexcluded
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $59.1k
4.0× usual
0% amis208d agoexcluded
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $37.0k0% 0xdamocles209d agoexcluded
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $134.8k0% 0x3b8d…2ce6209d agoexcluded
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$15.0k
LOW 0xb03b…6ca1 · 207d ago
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$58.0k
LOW tifakers · 207d ago
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$38.7k
LOW blgggggg · 208d ago
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$59.1k
LOW amis · 208d ago
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$37.0k
LOW 0xdamocles · 209d ago
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$134.8k
LOW 0x3b8d…2ce6 · 209d ago