amis

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.0 wins, so it did -3.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?+$1,067No · avg 94.7¢ → 97.8¢ · $34.4k Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?+$1,669No · avg 92¢ → 97¢ · $33.0k Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026?+$3,625No · avg 86¢ → 97.5¢ · $31.3k Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in October?−$44No · avg 99¢ → 98.8¢ · $22.0k Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?+$1,606No · avg 91.1¢ → 98.8¢ · $20.7k Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026?+$3,998No · avg 75¢ → 97.5¢ · $17.4k Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 by December 31, 2026?+$2,872No · avg 82¢ → 99¢ · $16.8k Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?+$813No · avg 93.4¢ → 98.3¢ · $16.2k

Price-adjusted edge

-3.1 pts

Called / graded

0/1

Expected from price

0.0

Flagged volume

$137.8k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.3 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$79.0k

Last 30 days +$4,808 · $4.56M volume · 3,597 trades · since Jul 15, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$70.8k

Open P&L · 36 positions

+$14.9k

Closed-position win rate

88%

343 closed

Wallet age · markets

831d

378 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Crypto	1	0	0.0	-3.1 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	LOW SELL No @ 98.9¢	$11.7k	1%	193d ago	excluded
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	LOW BUY No @ 96.9¢	$10.7k	97%	200d ago	called
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?	LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢	$59.1k 4.0× usual	0%	208d ago	excluded
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?	LOW SELL No @ 96.9¢	$14.6k	3%	210d ago	missed
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?	LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢	$14.8k	1%	213d ago	excluded
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?	MED BUY No @ 93.9¢	$26.9k	94%	230d ago	called

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?excluded

SELL No @ 98.9¢$11.7k

LOW amis · 193d ago

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?called

BUY No @ 96.9¢$10.7k

LOW amis · 200d ago

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?excluded

SELL No @ 99.9¢$59.1k

LOW amis · 208d ago

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?missed

SELL No @ 96.9¢$14.6k

LOW amis · 210d ago

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?excluded

SELL No @ 99.4¢$14.8k

LOW amis · 213d ago

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?called

BUY No @ 93.9¢$26.9k

MED amis · 230d ago

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