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What this means. A wallet put $19.2k on No, at a price that gave it a 96% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+8.5 pts over 35 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$19.2k
BUY No @ 96¢ · 20,000 shares
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favoriteLate (<1h before start)Proven walletOther
What happened
Wallet MisTKy took No (buy) for $19.2k at an average 96¢. At that price the market implied a 96% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $19.2k+0
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 96¢ means
96%chance the market gave
−2400American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 96¢
- Implied odds
- 96.0%
- Size
- $19.2k
- Placed
- Feb 16, 21:13 EST
- Market close
- Jan 30, 19:00 EST
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- MisTKy
- Tx
- 0x8d8ff8cb…
This wallet's graded record
25/35+8.5 pts
expected 22.0 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $28.5k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $11.6k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $122.9k 3.0× usual |
excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $156.8k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $51.1k 2.6× usual |
excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $14.4k | excluded |