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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.2 wins, so it did -17.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-17.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.2
Flagged volume
$82.1k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±37.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$4,678
Last 30 days +$654 · $883.9k volume · 1,264 trades · since Jan 25, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$3,055
Open P&L · 12 positions
−$1,353
Closed-position win rate
55%
143 closed
Wallet age · markets
272d
139 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.2 | -17.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 83¢ | $10.0k | missed |
 US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 96.9¢ | $12.7k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $12.4k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $11.7k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $11.6k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $11.4k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $12.3k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x4f0777…