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What this means. A wallet put $13.9k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 32% chance. It lost. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+8.5 pts over 35 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$13.9k
BUY Yes @ 32¢ · 43,500 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Proven walletOther
What happened
Wallet MisTKy took Yes (buy) for $13.9k at an average 32¢. At that price the market implied a 32% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $13.9k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 32¢ means
32%chance the market gave
+212American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 32¢
- Implied odds
- 32.0%
- Size
- $13.9k
- Placed
- Apr 21, 03:46 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 29, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- MisTKy
- Tx
- 0x88c4e38c…
This wallet's graded record
25/35+8.5 pts
expected 22.0 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -32 ptsYes price · entry 32¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $23.6k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $24.0k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $42.7k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $16.6k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $86.0k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $11.1k | excluded |