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What this means. A wallet put $13.1k on No, at a price that gave it a 98% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+8.5 pts over 35 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$13.1k
BUY No @ 97.6¢ · 13,440 shares
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favoriteLate (<1h before start)Proven walletOther
What happened
Wallet MisTKy took No (buy) for $13.1k at an average 97.6¢. At that price the market implied a 98% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $13.1k+0
Near-certain price-2
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 98¢ means
98%chance the market gave
−4054American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 97.6¢
- Implied odds
- 97.6%
- Size
- $13.1k
- Placed
- Mar 31, 04:00 EDT
- Market close
- Mar 30, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- MisTKy
- Tx
- 0x839eccc8…
This wallet's graded record
25/35+8.5 pts
expected 22.0 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $47.6k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $41.2k | excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | MED SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $249.8k 9.3× usual |
excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $12.9k | excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $97.4k 3.6× usual |
excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $48.8k 2.4× usual |
excluded |