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What this means. A wallet put $14.4k on Over, at a price that gave it a 52% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$14.4k
BUY Over @ 52¢ · 27,706 shares
Size ≥ $10kSports
What happened
Wallet StarryPath took Over (buy) for $14.4k at an average 52¢. At that price the market implied a 52% chance for that side. The market resolved Under, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $14.4k+0
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 52¢ means
52%chance the market gave
−108American odds
$1.00paid per share if Over wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 52¢
- Implied odds
- 52.0%
- As American odds
- −108 no vig
- Size
- $14.4k
- Placed
- Oct 24, 03:04 EDT
- Market close
- Oct 24, 10:00 EDT
- Result
- Under
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- StarryPath
- Tx
- 0x77c487cd…
This wallet's graded record
2/4-1.5 pts
expected 2.1 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -52 ptsOver price · entry 52¢ · resolved Under
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Arsenal FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5 | LOW SELL Under @ 99.9¢ | $30.8k | excluded |
| Arsenal FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 55¢ | $11.5k | excluded |
| Arsenal FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 55¢ | $23.1k | missed |
| Arsenal FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5 | MED BUY Over @ 51¢ | $188.4k 6.7× usual |
missed |
| Arsenal FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5 | MED BUY Over @ 51¢ | $100.0k | missed |
| Arsenal FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 50¢ | $20.0k | missed |
Same game on Kalshi
Kalshi is a separate US exchange for the same kind of yes/no prices. These are large trades or sudden odds moves we flagged there on this same game. Kalshi doesn't show who traded.
| NO Over 3.5 goals scored | $11.0k | 90¢ | 12h ago |
| NO Over 2.5 goals scored | $20.2k | 54¢ | 12h ago |
| NO Over 3.5 goals scored | $27.5k | 73¢ | 13h ago |
| YES Arsenal | $13.1k | 87¢ | 13h ago |
| NO Over 2.5 1H goals scored | $15.3k | 94.4¢ | 13h ago |
| YES Arsenal | $34.9k | 87¢ | 13h ago |
| NO Over 1.5 1H goals scored | $14.0k | 67¢ | 14h ago |
| YES Over 0.5 1H goals scored | $12.2k | 73¢ | 14h ago |