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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 2.1 wins, so it did -1.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Open bets: who else is there
Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.
No · Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Same side: 1 proven · 0 losing Other side: 0 proven · 0 losing
No · Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
Same side: 1 proven · 0 losing Other side: 0 proven · 0 losing
Yes · 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
Same side: 2 proven · 0 losing Other side: 1 proven · 0 losing
Price-adjusted edge
-1.5 pts
Called / graded
2/4
Expected from price
2.1
Flagged volume
$171.2k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±24.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$53.1k
Last 30 days +$10.2k · $242.42M volume · 1,061,428 trades · since Oct 25, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$563.3k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
—
2413 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4 | 2 | 2.1 | -1.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Arsenal FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 52¢ | $14.4k | missed |
| Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-24? | LOW BUY No @ 49¢ | $14.1k | called |
 Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | LOW BUY No @ 80¢ | $10.0k | pending |
 Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? | LOW BUY No @ 75¢ | $10.7k | pending |
| Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-24? | LOW BUY No @ 48¢ | $13.3k | called |
 France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 85¢ | $11.8k | pending |
 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $15.8k | pending |
 Spread: Bears (-3.5) | LOW BUY Patriots @ 57¢ | $16.4k | missed |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $20.6k | pending |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | LOW BUY Yes @ 66¢ | $16.3k | pending |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | LOW BUY No @ 74¢ | $17.8k | pending |
 Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
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