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What this means. A wallet put $15.8k on No, at a price that gave it a 79% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$15.8k
BUY No @ 79¢ · 20,011 shares
Size ≥ $10kEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet SmallFishInWhaleStomach took No (buy) for $15.8k at an average 79¢. At that price the market implied a 79% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $15.8k+0
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 79¢ means
79%chance the market gave
−376American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 79¢
- Implied odds
- 79.0%
- Size
- $15.8k
- Placed
- Feb 18, 09:30 EST
- Market close
- May 08, 16:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- SmallFishInWhaleStomach
- Tx
- 0x6d8eac58…
This wallet's graded record
0/1-94.9 pts
expected 0.9 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $138.2k 4.8× usual |
excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $10.6k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $106.5k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $13.4k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $35.2k | excluded |