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SmallFishInWhaleStomach

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did -94.9 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Open bets: who else is there

Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.

None of its 1 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.

Price-adjusted edge
-94.9 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$1.88M
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$97.2k
Last 30 days +$17.3k · $11.67M volume · 5,190 trades · since Oct 29, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$182.4k
Open P&L · 8 positions
−$97.9k
Closed-position win rate
79%
227 closed
Wallet age · markets
361d
208 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other100.9-94.9 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.2¢ $10.6k99% 1d agopending
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 98.9¢ $36.2k99% 1d agopending
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?MED BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $299.7k
6.9× usual
100% 93d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $270.6k
6.2× usual
100% 129d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 94.9¢ $20.1k95% 171d agomissed
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 90¢ $38.4k90% 171d agomissed
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?MED SELL No @ 90¢ $71.0k10% 172d agocalled
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $244.7k
5.6× usual
100% 176d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $20.1k99% 176d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $59.7k100% 177d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?MED SELL No @ 91¢ $45.5k9% 184d agomissed
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $102.3k
2.4× usual
0% 189d agoexcluded
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ $102.1k
2.4× usual
100% 190d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $107.8k
2.5× usual
100% 198d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $33.8k100% 199d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW BUY No @ 79¢ $33.9k79% 211d agocalled
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $66.3k100% 235d agoexcluded
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?MED BUY Yes @ 95.5¢ $27.0k96% 235d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $76.0k100% 238d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 79¢ $15.8k79% 248d agomissed
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 77¢ $12.8k77% 248d agomissed
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $118.3k
2.7× usual
0% 294d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 99¢ $23.6k99% 299d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?MED SELL No @ 96.4¢ $41.4k4% 316d agoexcluded

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