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What this means. A wallet put $102.3k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 0% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$102.3k
SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ · 102,440 shares
Size ≥ $100kUnderdog sideLate (<1h before start)2.4× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet SmallFishInWhaleStomach took Yes (sell) for $102.3k at an average 99.9¢. At that price the market implied a 0% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $102.3k+2
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 99.9¢
- Implied odds
- 0.1%
- Size
- $102.3k
- Placed
- Apr 17, 19:00 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 14, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- SmallFishInWhaleStomach
- Tx
- 0xe8fd00ae…
This wallet's graded record
0/1-94.9 pts
expected 0.9 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $51.8k | excluded |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $25.0k | excluded |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $45.4k | excluded |