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What this means. A wallet put $41.4k on not No, at a price that gave it a 4% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$41.4k
SELL No @ 96.4¢ · 42,974 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideLate (<1h before start)Other
What happened
Wallet SmallFishInWhaleStomach took No (sell) for $41.4k at an average 96.4¢. At that price the market implied a 4% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $41.4k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 96.4¢
- Implied odds
- 3.6%
- Size
- $41.4k
- Placed
- Dec 12, 03:51 EST
- Market close
- Aug 18, 15:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- SmallFishInWhaleStomach
- Tx
- 0x69fec6b9…
This wallet's graded record
0/1-94.9 pts
expected 0.9 from price
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Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $89.9k 3.0× usual |
excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $32.3k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $45.0k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $10.7k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |