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What this means. A wallet put $15.6k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 75% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has a proven record: +13.4 pts vs the price over 36 bets. A bet from a wallet like this is worth a look; one from a random whale usually isn't. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$15.6k
BUY Yes @ 75¢ · 20,842 shares
Size ≥ $10kLate (<1h before start)Proven walletSports
What happened
Wallet Erasmus. took Yes (buy) for $15.6k at an average 75¢. At that price the market implied a 75% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $15.6k+0
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 75¢ means
75%chance the market gave
−300American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 75¢
- Implied odds
- 75.0%
- As American odds
- −300 no vig
- Size
- $15.6k
- Placed
- Apr 19, 15:29 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 06, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- Erasmus.
- Tx
- 0x59bd0197…
This wallet's graded record
29/36+13.4 pts
expected 24.2 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $79.9k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $29.9k | excluded |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $25.0k | excluded |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $11.6k | excluded |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $58.1k | excluded |