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What this means. A wallet put $498.5k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 100% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$498.5k
BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ · 500,000 shares
Size ≥ $250kHeavy favoriteEarly (>24h before close)6.5× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet 0x095d…52cf took Yes (buy) for $498.5k at an average 99.7¢. At that price the market implied a 100% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $498.5k+3
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 100¢ means
100%chance the market gave
—American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 99.7¢
- Implied odds
- 99.7%
- Size
- $498.5k
- Placed
- Apr 07, 05:46 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 08, 20:28 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- 0x095d…52cf
- Tx
- 0x3d0a3267…
This wallet's graded record
1/1+13.0 pts
expected 0.9 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +0 ptsYes price · entry 99.7¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $12.5k | excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $39.0k 2.6× usual |
excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $870.2k 34.2× usual |
excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $249.8k 7.8× usual |
excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $1.13M 5.2× usual |
excluded |