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+$4,406No · avg 66¢ → 78¢ · $30.0k+$2,574No · avg 85¢ → 95.8¢ · $22.8k+$2,200No · avg 84¢ → 94¢ · $20.4k+$3,536No · avg 75¢ → 96.6¢ · $15.5k+$82No · avg 81¢ → 82¢ · $9,203+$923No · avg 81¢ → 96.4¢ · $5,677+$155No · avg 91.6¢ → 97.4¢ · $2,603+$330No · avg 83¢ → 95.5¢ · $2,465
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +13.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+13.0 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$1.35M
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±33.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$387.7k
Last 30 days +$4,021 · $17.63M volume · 56,792 trades · since Jan 02, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$359.0k
Open P&L · 93 positions
−$332.9k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
2112d
689 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +13.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $141.4k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $12.9k | excluded |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ | $498.5k 6.5× usual |
excluded |
 Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $249.8k 3.2× usual |
excluded |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $124.9k | excluded |
 US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 98.6¢ | $36.1k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 86¢ | $77.3k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ | $134.3k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 87¢ | $17.4k | called |
 Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $29.9k | excluded |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ | $31.7k | excluded |
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