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What this means. A wallet put $15.2k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 83% chance. It won. This wallet has only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$15.2k
SELL Yes @ 17¢ · 86,840 shares
Size ≥ $10kEarly (>24h before close)Sports
What happened
Wallet 0x499f…ccaf took Yes (sell) for $15.2k at an average 17¢. At that price the market implied a 83% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $15.2k+0
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 17¢
- Implied odds
- 82.5%
- As American odds
- −473 no vig
- Size
- $15.2k
- Placed
- Jul 14, 14:19 EDT
- Market close
- Jul 19, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- 0x499f…ccaf
- Tx
- 0x38f83d8b…
This wallet's graded record
1/2+15.5 pts
expected 0.7 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +17 ptsYes price · entry 17¢ · resolved No · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $89.9k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $53.9k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 77¢ | $104.3k 4.7× usual |
called |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 97.1¢ | $14.8k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 82¢ | $35.0k 2.1× usual |
called |