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What this means. A wallet put $48.6k on No, at a price that gave it a 83% chance. It won. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+8.5 pts over 35 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$48.6k
BUY No @ 83¢ · 58,734 shares in 3 fills
Size ≥ $10k3 fills in 1hEarly (>24h before close)Proven wallet2.6× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet MisTKy took No (buy) for $48.6k at an average 83¢. At that price the market implied a 83% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $48.6k+1
3 fills within 1h+1
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 83¢ means
83%chance the market gave
−480American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 83¢
- Implied odds
- 82.7%
- Size
- $48.6k
- Placed
- Mar 27, 13:08 EDT
- Market close
- Mar 30, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- MisTKy
- Tx
- 0x3204b4ed…
This wallet's graded record
25/35+8.5 pts
expected 22.0 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +17 ptsNo price · entry 83¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $47.6k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $41.2k | excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | MED SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $249.8k 9.3× usual |
excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $12.9k | excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $97.4k 3.6× usual |
excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $48.8k 2.4× usual |
excluded |