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What this means. A wallet put $12.9k on not No, at a price that gave it a 12% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$12.9k
SELL No @ 88¢ · 14,692 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet Casdifer took No (sell) for $12.9k at an average 88¢. At that price the market implied a 12% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $12.9k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 88¢
- Implied odds
- 12.0%
- Size
- $12.9k
- Placed
- Jan 26, 14:18 EST
- Market close
- Jan 30, 19:00 EST
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- Casdifer
- Tx
- 0x1593ac1a…
This wallet's graded record
3/5+4.4 pts
expected 2.8 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -12 ptsNo price · entry 88¢ · resolved No · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $27.9k | excluded |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $39.1k | excluded |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $10.5k | excluded |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 96.6¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 96¢ | $44.7k | called |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 94¢ | $17.7k | missed |