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What this means. A wallet put $93.0k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 88% chance. It won. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+8.5 pts over 35 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$93.0k
BUY Yes @ 88¢ · 105,969 shares in 4 fills
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favorite4 fills in 1hEarly (>24h before close)Proven wallet5.1× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet MisTKy took Yes (buy) for $93.0k at an average 88¢. At that price the market implied a 88% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $93.0k+1
4 fills within 1h+1
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 88¢ means
88%chance the market gave
−715American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 88¢
- Implied odds
- 87.7%
- Size
- $93.0k
- Placed
- Apr 03, 12:11 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 08, 20:28 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- MisTKy
- Tx
- 0x0eb22c72…
This wallet's graded record
25/35+8.5 pts
expected 22.0 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +12 ptsYes price · entry 88¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $12.5k | excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $39.0k 2.6× usual |
excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $870.2k 34.2× usual |
excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $249.8k 7.8× usual |
excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $1.13M 5.2× usual |
excluded |