Thursday, May 14, 2026

93 whale trades totalling $3.87M from 62 wallets. Biggest: $616.3k buy No on “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?” at 99.8¢. 33 of 65 flags that resolved today called the outcome vs 38.4 expected (-8.3 pts).

Biggest trades

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	Wallet	When	Result
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$616.3k 18.4× usual	100%	UnderperformingForALivin	162d ago	excluded
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	MED BUY No @ 94¢	$232.5k 8.6× usual	94%	ArmageddonRewardsBilly PROVEN	163d ago	called	Trade this
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 89¢	$195.0k 6.9× usual	89%	EB99999	162d ago	called	Trade this
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	HIGH SELL No @ 92.1¢	$131.9k 4.9× usual	8%	ArmageddonRewardsBilly PROVEN	163d ago	missed	Trade this
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 87¢	$103.2k 3.8× usual	87%	AdrianCronauer	163d ago	called	Trade this
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	MED BUY No @ 66¢	$103.1k 3.6× usual	66%	0xf1bf…11d7	163d ago	called	Trade this
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢	$99.7k 3.7× usual	0%	AdrianCronauer	162d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢	$99.7k 3.7× usual	100%	AdrianCronauer	162d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢	$92.4k 3.4× usual	0%	AdrianCronauer	162d ago	excluded
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	HIGH BUY Yes @ 59¢	$87.1k	59%	0xdf0e…5c89 NEW	162d ago	called	Trade this
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢	$78.9k 2.8× usual	0%	EB99999	162d ago	excluded
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves	LOW BUY Atlanta Braves @ 63¢	$78.8k 2.6× usual	63%	ROBBATTISTAFANDUELRETARD	162d ago	missed	Trade this
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	HIGH SELL No @ 94¢	$75.4k 2.8× usual	6%	ArmageddonRewardsBilly PROVEN	163d ago	missed	Trade this
Golden Knights vs. Ducks	LOW BUY Ducks @ 53¢	$65.0k	53%	NiNo999	162d ago	excluded
Canadiens vs. Sabres	MED SELL Canadiens @ 89¢	$64.8k 2.1× usual	11%	TsingTs32	162d ago	excluded

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?excluded

BUY No @ 99.8¢$616.3k

LOW UnderperformingForALivin · 162d ago

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?called

BUY No @ 94¢$232.5k

MED PROVEN ArmageddonRewardsBilly · 163d ago

Trade this

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?called

BUY No @ 89¢$195.0k

MED EB99999 · 162d ago

Trade this

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?missed

SELL No @ 92.1¢$131.9k

HIGH PROVEN ArmageddonRewardsBilly · 163d ago

Trade this

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?called

BUY No @ 87¢$103.2k

MED AdrianCronauer · 163d ago

Trade this

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?called

BUY No @ 66¢$103.1k

MED 0xf1bf…11d7 · 163d ago

Trade this

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?excluded

SELL No @ 99.8¢$99.7k

LOW AdrianCronauer · 162d ago

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.5¢$99.7k

LOW AdrianCronauer · 162d ago

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?excluded

SELL No @ 99.8¢$92.4k

LOW AdrianCronauer · 162d ago

Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?called

BUY Yes @ 59¢$87.1k

HIGH New wallet 0xdf0e…5c89 · 162d ago

Trade this

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?excluded

SELL No @ 99.6¢$78.9k

LOW EB99999 · 162d ago

Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Bravesmissed

BUY Atlanta Braves @ 63¢$78.8k

LOW ROBBATTISTAFANDUELRETARD · 162d ago

Trade this

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?missed

SELL No @ 94¢$75.4k

HIGH PROVEN ArmageddonRewardsBilly · 163d ago

Trade this

Golden Knights vs. Ducksexcluded

BUY Ducks @ 53¢$65.0k

LOW NiNo999 · 162d ago

Canadiens vs. Sabresexcluded

SELL Canadiens @ 89¢$64.8k

MED TsingTs32 · 162d ago

Most traded markets

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

$848.3k · 4 flags

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

$378.4k · 6 flags

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?

$372.5k · 9 flags

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

$369.9k · 4 flags

Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves

$272.5k · 10 flags

Canadiens vs. Sabres

$241.0k · 9 flags