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HorribleWork

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +5.6 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+5.6 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$1.90M
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±23.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$410.0k
Last 30 days +$16.0k · $27.93M volume · 30,646 trades · since Oct 20, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.06M
Open P&L · 174 positions
−$575.4k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
734d
1308 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Sports110.9+5.6 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $22.8k0% 52d agoexcluded
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $55.7k100% 100d agoexcluded
Mexico vs. England: Team to AdvanceLOW BUY Mexico @ 49¢ $40.7k49% 110d agoexcluded
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY No @ 94.4¢ $31.7k94% 122d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 99¢ $139.9k
3.0× usual
99% 130d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 97.4¢ $46.3k97% 130d agoexcluded
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢ $99.7k
2.1× usual
0% 140d agoexcluded
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $99.9k
2.1× usual
0% 144d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $25.4k0% 144d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $37.9k0% 145d agoexcluded
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ $74.4k100% 145d agoexcluded
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ $20.9k0% 152d agoexcluded
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)LOW BUY Sean Strickland @ 99.9¢ $72.9k100% 167d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $111.9k
2.4× usual
0% 174d agoexcluded
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ $49.9k100% 174d agoexcluded
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ $184.4k
3.9× usual
100% 174d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $24.9k0% 177d agoexcluded
Will Trump dance today?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $71.9k0% 178d agoexcluded
Will Trump dance today?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $50.0k0% 178d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $17.9k0% 179d agoexcluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $59.7k100% 184d agoexcluded
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢ $147.5k
3.1× usual
99% 191d agoexcluded
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $17.5k0% 191d agoexcluded
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢ $28.3k99% 193d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $19.5k100% 202d agoexcluded
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $77.2k0% 202d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ $19.7k100% 202d agoexcluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $67.9k0% 206d agoexcluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $20.0k0% 206d agoexcluded
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $47.4k100% 206d agoexcluded
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $77.8k100% 207d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢ $17.5k0% 265d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $17.6k100% 266d agoexcluded

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